Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
