Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
